5. 6. Burrow does an excellent job playing light on his toes and taking shortcuts to accelerate his progression from one read to the next, playing with an eerily similar style of footwork to Prescott. Dak Prescott has earned layers of criticism from NFL faithful for his turnovers, but on the deep ball he got away with just one turnover all season. Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs Tom Brady, Buccaneers Watch: Eli Manning, Stat to know: Over the past three seasons combined, Mahomes had the highest total expected points added on throws on the run. Not only does he bring a physical element to the position, both inside and outside of the pocket, but we can also point to multiple plays on the tape where he had to make a big-time throw with location in the face of pressure. While Jackson is the NFL's most dynamic player when he breaks contain, Mahomes' ability to threaten defenses in scramble situations, both as a runner and a thrower, puts him at the top of my list. Many modern NFL quarterbacks have the ability to contribute in the run game, and offensive coordinators are looking to their QBs for designed runs and option reads more often. Ryan Tannehill, Titans But a pair of rookies -- Lawrence and the 49ers' Trey Lance -- have a good case for at least the No. He's only getting better, it seems. He has 11 straight seasons with single-digit interceptions, taking care of the ball, making the decision every time, and moving in the pocket to keep the play alive and create a big play downfield. Much like 2021, however, his deep accuracy declined significantly beyond throws of 21-30 yards, as he was 6-20 on throws of 31+ yards. 2. -- Schatz/Klassen, Others who received at least one vote: Russell Wilson, Justin Herbert, Justin Fields, Ryan Tannehill, Mitchell Trubisky, Sam Darnold, Derek Carr and Patrick Mahomes. The 2015 No. It is highly recommended that you use the latest versions of a supported browser in order to receive an optimal viewing experience. 9. When you have CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper to roast man-to-man defenses, along with Dalton Schultz and Blake Jarwin over the middle, why not just let it rip? Jones attempted just 24 deep passes on the year, but he didnt record a single turnover-worthy play. He was one of only six quarterbacks who recorded zero turnover-worthy plays on short pass attempts. He is blowing away the field. While we can quantify plenty in football, sometimes it's important to know when to just trust the qualitative experts. guys who are playing the best this season, 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Williams No. Mahomes not only can throw the football about as far as he'd like, but he can throw it where he'd like it to go. On those 14 plays, he has nine completions, which have accounted for 375 yards and two touchdowns. Oh yeah and Kyler Murray. Derek Carr, Raiders East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) throws the ball as New York Jets defensive end Ronald Blair (54) pursues during the first quarter at MetLife Stadium. Lance, in particular, has a special blend of velocity and downfield distance that comes out of his hand with ease, not unlike Herbert's. But Brady is breaking it. The man is just so slippery. quarterback threw just one interception on short attempts. He will vault to the top of this list over the next couple of years. 1. 7. 5. In today's NFL, quarterbacks have so many different throwing motions. Going back two seasons, Allen was also contacted the second-most times in 2019 -- again behind Jackson. passing yards along with the defensive pressure he faces. 1 prospect for the 2021 class since he was a freshman at Clemson -- he has some of the best arm talent we've seen in the past 20 years. 9. FitzMagic is indestructible. Dak Prescott, Cowboys 4. Jaren Hall was a two-year starter at BYU and started 25 games total. However, he ranked 23rd in turnover-worthy play rate on these throws and, consequently, 24th in PFF grade. Please check the opt-in box to acknowledge that you would like to subscribe. 6. Arizona also boasts the NFL's largest point differential (+111), is the toughest team to score on (16.3 points allowed per game), is getting defensive reinforcements off the COVID-19 list -- including OLB Chandler Jones -- and is already effectively integrating new TE Zach Ertz, the first player to catch a TD pass in successive weeks for different teams. 23 out of 140 qualifying FBS quarterbacks last year with a 50.7% adjusted completion percentage on throws 20-plus yards downfield. The deep ball threat completely goes away when Goff is under pressure. Did Pats make Mac Jones happy? Tom Brady, Buccaneers Wilson made it eight straight seasons of durably starting and never having a losing year in the NFL. Josh Allen, Bills 2021 (vs. Miami): Most passing yards (344) and TDs (four) by an Alabama QB in starting debut 2021: (vs. Arkansas): Broke 52-year school record for single-game passing yards (559) 247Sports profile Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders 3. -- Bowen. Kirk Cousins, Vikings Ready for these figures? Are you looking to contact Customer Support about a subscription or account related question? -- Hasselbeck, Snubbed: Joe Burrow does not have the raw arm strength to fit the ball into tight windows. And even that might not work all that well. More NFL coverage , Stat to know: Over the past three seasons, Wilson leads all quarterbacks in completion percentage over expectation on passes with 20-plus air yards -- often via his famous rainbow-arc deep balls -- per NFL Next Gen Stats. "@DavyJPopNLocka @MitchellRenz365 if only we had a QB that had one of the most accurate deep balls in the league. 3. Matthew Stafford, Rams 4. A first-year starter as a redshirt freshman, Maye threw the ball a lot and for a ton of yards and a ton of touchdowns, which is a great way to get on the NFL radarso is being 6-foot-4 and 225 . The man has seen everything, and the way he's operating right now shows it. All the basic raw stats are here, from completions, completion percentage, yards, touchdowns, and interceptions. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Washington, Best of the best: For someone who could have retired a few years ago and still had a strong case as the greatest ever, Brady refuses to ever lose his edge. -- Tannenbaum, Snubbed: The Ravens' Lamar Jackson may never get the credit he deserves as a processor, but few handle the quick game the way he does. Hall is accurate and long. On deep balls in 2021, the 2021 first overall pick posted an ugly 46.4 passer rating and threw for just 548 yards on deep passes, both of which were bottom-five marks. 4. Yes, he's a good processor, but this isn't a category where I'd rank him over the likes of, say, Ryan. 3. 2. His ability to pirouette out of pressure, avoid oncoming rushers and side-step a would-be sack turns nothing plays into possible scoring opportunities. T7. Allen, with his physical size, strength and ability as both a runner and thrower, separates himself slightly from the group for me as the one guy who would scare me the most if I had to line up and defend him for a full 60 minutes. He also ranked second in accuracy-plus percentage by placing 43.7% of his deep balls in the perfect spot for his receiver. 1. -- Yates, Biggest surprise: I would've put Baker Mayfield in the top 10 here. Some pretty deep balls in that video, especially considering the era in which he did it. -- Bowen, Stat to know: There's no perfect measure of accuracy, but Rodgers had the lowest interception per dropback rate and second-lowest off-target rate in the league last season. Russell Wilson, Seahawks. Finally, we pointed out snubs who probably should have cracked each ranking. But how about a shoutout for someone who didn't make the cut: Guess who has the most wins over the past five seasons in games in which they at some point had less than a 10% chance of winning? He also had the most deep ball touchdowns with 12 on the season. Russell Wilson, Seahawks Tom Brady, Buccaneers 41. Garropolo earned a 74.0 passing grade across 33 attempts last season, 25th among signal-callers. The browser you are using is no longer supported on this site. -- Kimes, Stat to know: Jackson blew away the field in expected points added on designed rushes in 2019. 6. The now-Denver Bronco went 29-of-75 for 1,090 yards throwing deep last season. Kellen Mond Texas A&M. AP Photo/Lynne Sladky. That's a 147.3 passer rating. Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs That's just how it is. Carr's 1,036 deep-passing yards ranked 10th among starters a season ago. It's more difficult to throw the ball with defenders in your face, for obvious reasons. NFL's Next Gen Stats captures real time location data, speed and acceleration for every player, every play on every inch of the field. Drew Brees (67.7%), 3. The arm strength and touch it takes to make throws like this is just outrageous, but Herbert is out here making it look easy. 5. Goff went 183-for-233 for 1,487 yards and six touchdowns on such throws. He has a sixth sense for anticipating pass-rushers, knowing exactly how and where it affects the pocket and which areas are safe to move to -- all before the pass rush can get to him. Aaron Rodgers, Packers -- Yates, Biggest surprise: Wilson at No. Tua is third fastest in average time to throw at 2.48 seconds, behind only Ben Roethlisberger and Tom Brady; over 56 percent of his dropbacks have the ball out in under 2.5 seconds, the. CBS Sports is a registered trademark of CBS Broadcasting Inc. Commissioner.com is a registered trademark of CBS Interactive Inc. site: media | arena: nfl | pageType: stories | Jimmy G completed 76.4% of his 199 attempts for 1,424 yards, six touchdowns and just two interceptions. -- Tannenbaum, Snubbed: One could argue nothing has been more critical to Ryan Fitzpatrick's success than how tough he is in the pocket. But as his pre-snap command at the line of scrimmage has grown, his tendency to play with more anticipation has grown with it. Stroud comes in as the most accurate of the top five quarterbacks. Brown got the most reps on Saturday and looking at the raw numbers, he was fairly efficient. Matthew Stafford, Rams Hurts finished in the top half of the league in deep-passing yards (766) a season ago. Age 37. The chart below is of an actual quarterback studied, the No. 6. Aaron Rodgers, Packers One aspect is sacks taken relative to pressures faced. Derek Carr, Raiders But the quarterback who ranked No. Stat to know: Over the past three seasons, Wilson leads all quarterbacks in completion percentage over expectation on passes with 20-plus air yards -- often via his famous rainbow-arc deep balls . Do Not Sell My Personal Information. Included in that are awareness and recognition when it comes to seeing defensive schemes or coverages, along with the fast eyes to identify blitzers, breaking defensive backs and open targets. Ll make the case for each QB a friend of the deep ball 3,692 Across several more High School football . -- Riddick, Biggest surprise: Herbert needed to make the cut here. 9. Mitch Trubisky was the worst deep ball passer in the NFL in 2021, going 6-33, and ranking 36th amongst eligible QBs. Because he has outstanding football instincts and knows how to avoid taking the big hit. He can pick up the sticks and find open throwing windows when forced to leave the pocket. 7. Tony Buzbee, who represents the women suing Watson, said last week that the FBI met with him to discuss Watson and spoke with several plaintiffs. If opponents want to sit back with two deep safeties and dare him to either check to a run play or hit a checkdown option for a short-to-medium gain, Dak will just keep doing exactly that over and over again. Physicality is the big trait in this section. Also appearing in the accuracy percentage short-range category in second place, Tannehill tied for third in yards per attempt (7.2) on short throws. Will a QB audible out when he needs to, diagnosing and understanding different defensive looks? Tom Brady, Buccaneers But the guy who is going to get his overdue credit in this category in 2021 is Stafford. This is one of those cases, as mechanics come down to the eye test more than anything else. Goff went 183-for-233 for 1,487 yards and six touchdowns on such throws. It's a bit clichd at this point to talk about his moxie, but his competitive spirit is undeniable -- and it has powered some pretty strong performances late in games, especially of late. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports -- Bowen, Watch: Russell Wilson 5. As Baltimore explores ways to develop him as a passer from inside the pocket, there is room for growth that I would anticipate Jackson meeting. Yeah, go turn on the film from his destruction of the Colts on Monday night. Russell Wilson, Seahawks "Shot Zone" situation . He's 106 of 142 for 1,095 yards, 13 touchdowns, one interception, and a 124.0 passer rating when throwing within 2.5 seconds. 25. . Lamar Jackson, Ravens Our analysts then reacted to each list, explaining why the signal-callers at or near the top of each group belong there and what surprised them most about the final top-10s. He also ranked second in accuracy-plus percentage by placing 43.7% of his deep balls in the perfect spot for his receiver. Derek Carr, Raiders, Best of the best: While Brady might not have the cannon arm down the field that his counterparts possess, it has not hindered his production a bit. He would be much further up this list if not for his underwhelming accuracy metrics: He finished 23rd in accuracy rate and 26th in accuracy-plus rate. Shop here and show your colors. Hell yeah he threw some nice passes but, Those wins tho. -- Kimes, Stat to know: The Chiefs, as a team, have led the league in each of the last two seasons in separation over expectation on targets (an ESPN stat using NFL Next Gen Stats data). Jones earned a 16th-ranked 87.7 passing grade on deep throws last year, going 22-of-58 for 690 yards, four touchdowns and four interceptions. Anything over 20 Air yards is a low percentage play. Best Attribute: Ball Placement/Touch. He never lets a defense feel like it has him figured out. Jackson completed just 33.3% of his 20-plus-yard throws at 11.5 yards per attempt. That was his only turnover-worthy play, which contributed to a lowly turnover-worthy play rate of 0.4% the best non-zero mark. Forcing a pass into double coverage or attempting too many low-percentage plays can get you into trouble in a hurry. Aaron Rodgers, Packers Aaron Rodgers, Packers -- Yates, Biggest surprise: I'm surprised that Allen didn't end up No. Strong decision-making means less opportunities for the other team -- and likely more points for yours. Mac Jones was the 15th overall pick by the New England Patriots. The only thing pulling him down is his 29th-ranked turnover-worthy play rate: Only Washington's Taylor Heinicke threw more turnover-worthy passes on deep throws last season. Joe Burrow (68.2%), 2. Despite a solid 2022 season with 24 touchdowns and seven interceptions, Clifford is generally looked at as a limited . Prescott earned a seventh-ranked 94.5 passing grade on his 73 deep attempts. It's notable that he's hitting an incredible amount of big plays down the field in these situations, with throws of 20-plus air yards accounting for 27.3% of his attempts under pressure. 4. Since'61. Pick NFL winners straight up or against the spread and compete to win more than $14,400 in prizes! He doesn't receive much credit for this attribute, but he's very steady in a clean pocket. Carr scores high in accuracy stats despite a Raiders wide receiver corps that is far from the league's most consistent. Be it situational awareness, identifying pressure, adjusting protections or anticipating the unforeseen, he sets the bar. 2 QB. Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs Justin Herbert, Chargers, Best of the best: Rodgers and Wilson are two of the very best when it comes to hitting tight-window throws that seemingly are impossible completions, in addition to showing great touch on the deep ball. 3. A league-best 58.8% of those carries have gone for five yards or more. That means the QB has to know what he saw and what he's about to see, before he sees it, in order to get the ball out as quickly as Brady does. If Mahomes' receivers consistently have more separation when targeted, that speaks to his ability to see and target the correct option more often. Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs . He's made more bad decisions than usual (likely spurred by needing to score on every drive due to the team's horrendous defense), but he's still operating at an extremely high level. In that game alone, Jackson was 36 of 41 for 434 yards, four touchdowns and no picks on inside-the-pocket throws. The Dolphins signal-caller ranked third in completion percentage (48.3%) and second in yards per attempt (18.1) a season ago, but only Taylor Heinicke posted a worse turnover-worthy play rate on deep passes. -- Walder, With our live draft lobby, you can be drafting a team in minutes. Dak Prescott, Cowboys 2. Josh Allen, Bills Stat to know: No quarterback was contacted on more plays than Jackson last season (180). Tom Brady, Buccaneers Aaron Rodgers might be the most accurate quarterback in the league, and he's certainly one of the most careful. 6. Far too often, he would opt for the. It seems like he's barely putting any air under the ball, instead just ripping it downfield like he's throwing a 10-yard out. 10. They're both incredibly explosive and are probably more dangerous in the open field at this point than Newton, who checked in at No. Watch: Andrew Luck -- Tannenbaum, Snubbed: The NFL Next Gen Stats model for CPOE ranks the Raiders' Derek Carr seventh in the league over the past two seasons, completing 2.6% more passes than expected. Arm strength doesn't mean much if you can't perfectly put the ball where it needs to go. He has to immediately step into the waiting arms of another defender when he starts to move around, or else he's going to make you pay, whether by taking off downfield himself (six scrambles for 42 yards) or finding one of his many weapons in a developing hole in the secondary. He's 91 of 124 for 983 yards and eight touchdowns on outside-the-numbers throws overall, giving him the most completions and third-most touchdowns in the league on these plays. Outside of 21-25 yards his accuracy was outstanding on throws of 26+ yards, and he was the third most accurate tight window passer and second most accurate under center. Who can hit the tightest windows? It's a good time to be an NFL quarterback. Josh Allen, Bills BEST DEEP BALL: QUINN EWERS, OHIO STATE COMMIT . Successful quarterbacks need to master trajectory, whether it be fitting the ball in a tight spot with zip or softly dropping it in over a receiver's shoulder. He does not have any margin for error to make up time with his velocity. -- Kimes. -- McFarland, Snubbed: New England's Cam Newton feels like an odd omission given his reputation, but a relentless string of injuries, including shoulder issues, have sapped him of the arm strength of his youth. Herbert recorded the most short pass attempts (315) of any quarterback on the list. Watch: Deshaun Watson 4. They also need to throw with anticipation, leading a receiver into the catch and navigating defensive coverages. 10. The Colts-turned-Commanders quarterback ranked seventh among starters in both turnover-worthy play rate (4.5%) and passer rating (107.8) on deep passes last season. He's not exactly a polished passer, but he's a tough player who likes to run the ball. Time will tell if he can replicate that in 2021. -- McFarland, Snubbed: Carr may not be known as one of the great leaders in the modern NFL, but his performance in late and close situations speaks for itself. It's Derek Carr, with nine. Matt Ryan, Falcons Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs Murray is winning the battle with both. 10. 4. 7. Dak Prescott, Cowboys -- Bowen, Stat to know: Mahomes had the second-lowest interception per dropback rate and fourth-lowest sack rate last season. Syndication Usa Today. It is no coincidence that the. July 2, 2021. Dak Prescott, Cowboys 20/29, 230 yds, 1 TD, sacked 4 times. Nobody threw more 20-plus-yard passes than Brady (82) last season. Discover Next Gen Stats News, Charts, and Statistics. He makes up for it with careful ball placement and wonderful touch, doing his best to mimic the success that players such as Drew Brees and Phillip Rivers experienced in the second half of their careers. Looking at the rookies, Trey Lance might be the toughest of the bunch; he'll be rising in this ranking by next year. Daniel Jones, New York Giants 2. 9. According to PFF's ball-location data, the Oklahoma product also threw 48.5% of his deep attempts in the perfect spot for a receiver. Tyreek Hill caught two of Mahomes' touchdowns for 334 of his deep yards, so we'll have to wait and see whether the star quarterback can keep up his deep-passing prowess with Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Mecole Hardman in 2022. 32. . Fields showed exceptional accuracy from the pocket, displayed elite arm strength, and was a threat on the ground with almost 400 rushing yards in only eight games in 2020. 10 spot, if not higher. consistently got open more than most other pass-catchers, 2022 NFL season: Three teams ready to make playoff run after missing out in '21, AFC West projected starters for 2022 NFL season: Broncos look like contenders. In the black boxes are the Accuracy Percentage numbers. Avoiding turnovers, protecting the football, not taking unnecessary risks and keeping an offense out of harm's way lead to better efficiency. But there's a reason that this kid was the consensus No. With the amount of defined reads there, Carr can be smart with the football and attack the windows that Gruden dials up. But so, too, is Mahomes under center. 2 wideout Sammy Watkins (who left the game with an injury), there's not really much that opposing defenses can do but pray. Deshaun Watson, Texans* Dak Prescott, Cowboys Earlier this week, PFF ranked the 2021 starting quarterbacks' deep passing by various metrics, and Garoppolo came in at No. Kyler Murray, Cardinals A strong on-field performance this season will have him joining and moving up this list quickly next year. 2. 3. Last season, Mahomes converted 66.7% of his third-down scrambles (12 of 18) while also registering a QBR of 82.2, with eight touchdown passes, on scramble-attempt throws. Kansas City's offense had some trouble against the Bills last week, but that is not typical of how they or Mahomes have played so far this season, no matter what you've heard. And there's no question that Lawrence will make this list next season. Most of the social media general managers asked about linebackers and safeties still on the board. Justin Herbert, Chargers Most interesting pick (C+): QB Max Duggan, TCU (Round 7, Pick 239) Duggan fell further than many anticipated. He also possesses a nice ability to throw with people around him, find throwing lanes with adjusted arm angles and create ways to get the ball out of his hand. And NFL Next Gen Stats clocked his maximum speed last season at 19.5 miles per hour. However, Nick Foles ranked 24th, and was 17-41, so it not like he was lighting . T4. Matt Ryan, Falcons Unfortunately, he also recorded a 12.82% turnover-worthy play rate, 26th among his peers, and finished 18th in PFF grade. The Chiefs signal-caller completed 31 of his 69 deep attempts for 1,071 yards, seven touchdowns and two interceptions, and just three of his deep attempts were graded as turnover-worthy. We may receive a commission for purchases made through these links. Russell Wilson, Seahawks Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs The other three quarterbacks I listed rank 10th, 11th, and seventh in the NFL respectively in Intended Air Yards per Pass Attempt (IAY/PA), meaning they throw the ball deep pretty often. 8. Remember the "Lamar can't win as a passer from the pocket" discussions? Athleticism. Wilson ranked 25th or worse in five of the metrics measured for this list deep-passing grade, turnover-worthy play rate, accuracy rate, accuracy-plus rate and yards which echoes how his 2021 season went. Plus, Carr was much more willing to cut it loose on schemed verticals last season, registering a QBR of 99.6 on passes of 20 or more air yards, with 11 touchdowns and only one interception. Still, there was a bright spot he only had a turnover-worthy play rate of 6.67%, eighth among starters. 7. 4. Deshaun Watson (67.0%), 5. But DTR and every NFL draft pick have to be inspired by Brock Purdy's surprising play in 2021. Tom Brady, Buccaneers Ryan Tannehill, Titans His ability to stand in the pocket, face pressure and hit tight windows without sacrificing his throwing motion was impressive to watch. This is also a big season for Miami's second-year QB Tua Tagovailoa. Heinicke's 52.6 passing grade was 32nd of 32, and he had an ugly, last-place 17.91% turnover-worthy play rate. -- Walder, Riser to watch: A lot of people were worried about Murray's size coming out of college. He could easily find himself at the top of this list in the next few seasons. -- Kimes, Stat to know: How does one quantify pocket presence? Ranking the 2021 NFL starting quarterbacks by deep-passing performance. He is a dynamic player who is big, fast and tough. 4. But in terms of Jones' deep passing, the addition of Golladay could serve as a significant X-factor. Jimmy Garoppolo (67.6%), 4. I see a player who is learning what he can get away with and when, and I think that shows itself during this upcoming season and beyond. As we wrote in our "Thursday Night Football" preview: Brady is throwing the ball within 2.5 seconds of the snap on more than 60 percent of his dropbacks, per Pro Football Focus, and he is PFF's highest-graded passer on those plays. Josh Allen, Bills The clunkiness of Baltimore's passing game last season is much more a product of the lackluster receiving talent and Greg Roman's stale concepts than Jackson's inability to see the field. So was he. 31.7%. Trey Lance, 49ers, Best of the best: Jackson's career is just getting started, but his trajectory as a runner is obvious: He's on his way to becoming the best rushing quarterback of all time. And he's making defensive backs look ridiculous (and lose their minds) in the process. Dak Prescott, Cowboys And he is absolutely attacking with these throws, averaging 11.5 air yards per attempt, compared with 6.68 against all other coverages. His acceleration mirrors a sports car's; he has uncanny agility, and he slithers past tackles as though defenders have butterfingers. T4. those raiders teams were legitimately good squads. Baker Mayfield was accurate on 29 of 52 deep passes (55.8%) last season. -- Kimes, Stat to know: It has to say something that Brady has not missed a game due to injury since 2008, right? 9. 1 in the country at his position. On Chris Long's "Green Light" podcast, Bills running back Zack Moss claimed Allen can sling it over 100 yards. He enters Madden NFL 22 with just a 71 Overall rating but his 84 Deep Accuracy rating is tops among this year's rookie quarterback class. Deshaun Watson, Texans* Lamar Jackson, Ravens That's a 152.8 passer rating, which is easily the best in the league. 7. Russell Wilson, Seahawks And he ranked first in third-down pass attempts beyond the sticks at 70%, so he didn't have too many empty completions on third down, a sign he is being smart with the football. Watch: Baker Mayfield T8. He also led the league with 13 deep touchdowns and finished fourth in deep-passing grade. His 78.0 short passing grade ranked eighth of the 37 quarterbacks who attempted at least 72 short passes in 2021.
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